The Internet Will Kill The Pundit Prediction Markets

Why? Because your bad predictions stick around forever in the cloud. From Kevin Kelly, then the executive editor of Wired Magazine, ca. 1996:

Kevin Kelly believes that computers are over. “They’re history,” he says. “All the changes that computation is going to cause in our society have already happened. Computers primarily sped up society by automating a lot of processes, which was a sufficient change, but that is all it was.”

So, Kevin, how’s that prediction working out for you?

Interestingly, Kevin is now a board member of the Long Now Foundation. To quote him:

One of our Long Now projects is Long Bets, a forum for making long-term bets about the future. The intent is to foster accountability in our predictions; when you are wrong it should hurt.

After that 1996 prediction, he managed to get on the board of a foundation, making long-term bets about the future? Ouch!

(h/t Trevor)

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