Greg Linden says the Web 2.0 bubble will pop in 2008. He’s wrong, and here’s why:
- Attitude: in the late nineties, everyone was scrambling to put money into tech. Now? Not nearly as much enthusiasm, day trading, breathless highflier reports from shady stock promoters, etc.
- Scope: everybody with a business plan and two eyeballs got money last time. This time? Not so much.
- Volume: the VC dollars are way down from where they were in 2000, both in number of deals as well as absolute dollar value.
- Economy: Greg’s feeling about the global economy also doesn’t sit well with me — I predict a decent-to-good U.S. and global economy in 2008, and good-to-great in 2009.
There are continuing problems with revenue, particularly the over reliance on ad revenue, but I don’t see that as the key to a web / dot-com recession.
However, it’s not fair to suggest that Greg’s prediction has to do with his recent experience with Findory. Ideas don’t always work out, but you (the reader) have no idea, really, what went into Findory, what were the ultimate reasons for its demise, or what Greg has taken from the experience.
(h/t Brier Dudley)